Autumn Statement 2023

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The UK budget delivered by Chancellor Hunt sought to set a more positive tone than in the recent past but had the air of a ‘last throw of the dice’ to win back voters ahead of a general election in 2024 in which Labour is expected to sweep to power. Given the lingering damage to the government’s economic credibility from the ‘Trussonomics’ fiasco, the Chancellor had to weave a line between rebuilding credibility and giving enough away to (he hopes) sway voters. The Chancellor was afforded some room to manoeuvre on spending as tax revenues have been better than previously expected, mainly due to the high inflation levels.

The Chancellor believes the economy has turned a corner after a series of blows from Brexit, the pandemic and the Ukraine war. A corner may have been turned but the UK’s economic engine is in limp mode and continues to stutter forward rather than accelerate at pace. The latest forecasts from the OBR did not provide the Chancellor with any cheer, cutting their growth forecast for 2024 from 1.8% to 0.7% and cutting their projection for 2025 from 2.5% to 1.4%.

The Chancellor will be hoping that his announcements in the Autumn Statement inject some new energy and move us away from those unwelcome statistics. Much of what the Chancellor announced in the budget focussed on building a more dynamic business environment and increasing the pool of labour, with skills, planning, business investment, benefits and low pay all targeted.

Locally, our public finance woes are well documented and our shortfall could top half a billion pounds this year without any pay increases across the public sector. Matching the pay deals of the rest of the UK would see NI’s deficit increase to around a billion pounds. Any additional public funding that would have come to NI from the Chancellor’s statement will instead be used to pay down NI’s overspend.

There was a lot to digest in the Autumn Statement with the Chancellor announcing over 100 growth measures. The coming weeks and months will determine how effective these are.