Articles

Does a strong labour market deliver a good labour market? That is a topic that is gaining much more attention, especially so since the Economy Minister cited ‘good jobs’ in his economic objectives.

‘Sure it’s Christmas’ will no doubt be a frequently heard phrase over the next couple of weeks as the traditional season for over-indulgence ramps up. As we know, people have faced a massive cost of living crisis over the past 18 months so the question is what shape the consumer is in and will the tills ring?

Economy watchers were reaching for the popcorn over the past week as estimates of 50% growth in our economic fortunes over the next decade were cited as the potential prize from the Windsor Framework. Understandably, such an upbeat prediction was given significant airtime, which sparked reaction and challenge by some in the academic community.

The economy has rolled from punch to punch over the last number of years, prompting a necessarily reactionary approach. 2023 has started with a similarly uncertain outlook.

As we enter a New Year and the memories of our celebrations begin to fade, we will inevitably look to the 12 months ahead to understand how 2023 shapes in terms of work, holidays and finances. To that end Economists are like everyone else, except we will look ahead to what potential challenges and opportunities await the economy. While we will admit this is probably a dull exercise to many, we find this is quite a useful task, which will allow us to confidently advise our clients on how to ‘navigate’ the year ahead.

I took a call from a client recently who suggested my recent articles should come with free Valium. Believe it or not, and despite the best efforts of the Bank of England, UK Government and our own local politicians, I am an optimist.

The daily economic headlines currently paint a rather depressing picture, not only for individuals but also for most businesses. The continued economic squeeze, due to rising inflation and reduced demand for products and services, can only lead to more financial distress for the majority of business owners.

As we are all very aware, inflation is currently running at exceptional high levels. In fact, current levels stand at 9.4%, their highest level since February 1982.

We are all painfully aware of the current inflationary pressures, particularly when we see our energy bills.

Climate scientists are unambiguous about the need for rapid reductions in carbon emissions to meet the aim of limiting average levels of global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The latest Northern Ireland economic statistics show that the local economy had probably regained pre-pandemic levels by summer last year, a remarkable turnaround given the relative gloomy outlook many economists had foreseen for the year at the beginning of 2021. Looking ahead into 2022, the prospects remain upbeat continuing on the trend set in the second half of 2021, yet a number of headwinds could hamper progress.

Andrew Webb: Appropriate skills essential to unlocking IT sector potential

There has been a lot written about the 10x economy in the last few weeks, with the usual mix of cheerleaders and naysayers that any attempt to present a new plan brings. I have written many economic strategies over the past 15 or so years so I know they are not easy to do. There is a constant challenge to try and deliver something unique when, deep down, we all know the economic weak spots are so obvious and ingrained that a rollover would do just as well.

I prefer to shop locally, and with three children who seem to get taller every night, the reopening of shops last week was a big relief (to them at least). We sat out the immediate rush on the Friday thinking the bank holiday Monday would be a bit quieter.